2023 NFL Schedule Release: SI’s AFC Record Predictions

The conference is especially juicy at the quarterback position, with Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence all squaring off against one another throughout the season.

In this story:

Kansas City Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo Bills

New York Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars

Baltimore Ravens

Predicted record: 11–6, first AFC East

Home: vs. Broncos, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Giants, 1 p.m., Oct. 8; vs. Panthers, 1 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. Patriots, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; vs. Raiders, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; vs. Titans, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 11; vs. Jets, 1 p.m., Dec. 17; vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 24; vs. Bills, TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Chargers, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 10; at Patriots, 8:20 p.m, Sept. 17; at Bills, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; at Eagles, 8:20 p.m., Oct. 22; at Chiefs, 9:30 a.m., Nov. 5 (Germany); at Jets, 3 p.m., Nov. 24; at Commanders, 1 p.m., Dec. 3; at Ravens, 1 p.m., Dec. 31.

Analysis: The Dolphins could be one of the premier teams in the NFL this season. Miami had two national games leaked before the schedule was officially announced Thursday night—Week 9 against the Chiefs in Germany and a Black Friday road game against the Jets in Week 12.

Like the rest of the AFC East, the Dolphins face an absurd slate, including the divisional matchups, Kansas City and the NFC East. Their second-place schedule also features games against the Ravens and Titans. If the Dolphins are going to win their first division crown since 2008, it’ll be done through a gantlet.

Predicted record: 11–6, second AFC East (wild card)

Home: vs. Raiders, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Dolphins, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; vs. Jaguars, 9:30 a.m., Oct. 8 (London); vs. Giants, 8:20 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m., Oct. 26; vs. Broncos, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 13; vs. Jets, 4:25 p.m., Nov. 19; vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 17; vs. Patriots, 1 p.m., Dec. 31.

Away: at Jets, 8:15 p.m., Sept. 11; at Commanders, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; at Patriots, 1 p.m., Oct. 22; at Bengals, 8:20 p.m., Nov. 5; at Eagles, 4:25 p.m., Nov. 26; at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 10; at Chargers, 8 p.m., Dec. 23; at Dolphins, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: There’s an argument that nobody has a tougher schedule than the Bills. For starters, Buffalo will have six difficult games in the AFC East against the Dolphins, Patriots and Jets. Then there’s a road slate, which includes the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers and Bengals.

At home, Buffalo draws a pair of NFC playoff teams from a year ago in the Cowboys and Giants. Then there’s an international game against the Jaguars in Week 5, which counts against the Bills’ home games. There are very few easy games on the docket this year for Buffalo.

The Jets will benefit from a last-place schedule and the addition of Rodgers.

Tom Horak/USA TODAY Sports

Predicted record: 11–6, third AFC East (wild card)

Home: vs. Bills, 8:15 p.m., Sept. 11; vs. Patriots, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Chiefs, 8:20 p.m., Oct. 1; vs. Eagles, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. Chargers, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 6; vs. Dolphins, Nov. 24; vs. Falcons, 1 p.m., Dec. 3; vs. Texans, 1 p.m., Dec. 10; vs. Commanders, Dec. 24.

Away: at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 17; at Broncos, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 8; at Giants, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; at Raiders, 8:20 p.m., Nov. 12; at Bills, 4:25 p.m., Nov. 19; at Dolphins, 1 p.m., Dec. 17; Browns, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 28; Patriots, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: The Jets are getting a rare treatment for them, being given the full allotment of prime-time games. With Aaron Rodgers under center, New York has suddenly become one of the league’s marquee teams, and the schedule showcases that. The Jets also get to participate in the first Black Friday contest, hosting the Dolphins in Week 12.

As is the case with every AFC East team, the road is challenging. The Jets will face the AFC East and AFC West divisions, along with the NFC East, which sent three teams to the playoffs last year. However, New York will benefit from a last-place schedule.

Predicted record: 7–10, fourth AFC East

Home: vs. Eagles, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 10; vs. Dolphins, 8:20 p.m., Sept. 17; vs. Saints, 1 p.m., Oct. 8; vs. Bills, 1 p.m., Oct. 22; vs. Commanders, 1 p.m., Nov. 5; vs. Colts, 9:30 a.m., Nov. 12 (Germany); vs. Chargers, 1 p.m., Dec. 3; vs. Chiefs, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 18; vs. Jets, TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Jets 1 p.m., Sept. 24; at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 1; at Raiders, 4:05 p.m., Oct. 15; at Dolphins, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; at Giants, 1 p.m., Nov. 26; at Steelers, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 7; at Broncos, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 24, at Bills, 1 p.m., Dec. 31 

Analysis: For Mac Jones and the Patriots, the schedule features six games in the loaded AFC East against the Jets, Bills and Dolphins, and they could be underdogs in each. The Patriots also have a challenging home slate outside the division, including games against the Chiefs, Eagles, Saints and Chargers. New England also loses a home game, hosting the Colts in Germany come Week 10.

The road docket is every bit as tough, with the Patriots likely large underdogs against the Cowboys while also having to play in tough environments such as Pittsburgh and Denver.

AFC North

Predicted record: 14–3, first AFC North

Home: vs. Ravens, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; vs. Rams, 8:15 p.m., Sept. 25; vs. Seahawks, 1 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. Bills, 8:20 p.m., Nov. 5; vs. Texans, 1 p.m., Nov. 12; vs. Steelers, 1 p.m., Nov. 26; vs. Colts, 1 p.m., Dec. 10; vs. Vikings, TBD, Dec. 17; vs. Browns , TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Browns 1 p.m., Sept. 10; at Titans, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; at Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., Oct. 8; at 49ers, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 29; at Ravens, 7:15 p.m., Nov. 16; at Jaguars, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 4; at Steelers, 4:30 p.m., Dec. 23; at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 31.

Analysis: For the second consecutive year, the Bengals will play a first-place schedule after winning the AFC North. That means Cincinnati will face the Chiefs on the road and the Bills at home. However, the Bengals get a nice stretch against the AFC South, with only the Jaguars projecting to be an above-.500 squad.

We could also be getting a Super Bowl preview with the Bengals visiting the 49ers. If that matchup comes to fruition in February, it would be the third such tilt between the two. We’ll also get a Super Bowl LVI rematch, with Cincinnati hosting the Rams.

Predicted record: 11–6, second AFC North (wild card)

Home: vs. Texans, 1 p.m., Sept. 10; vs. Colts, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Lions, 1 p.m., Oct. 22; vs. Seahawks, 1 p.m., Nov. 5; vs. Browns, 1 p.m., Nov. 12; vs. Bengals, 8:15 p.m. Nov. 16; vs. Rams, 1 p.m., Dec. 10; vs. Dolphins, 1 p.m., Dec. 31; vs. Steelers, TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Bengals, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; at Browns, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; at Steelers, 1 p.m., Oct. 8; at Titans, 9:30 a.m., Oct. 15; at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 29; at Chargers, 8:20 p.m., Nov. 26; at Jaguars, 8:20 p.m., Dec. 17; at 49ers, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 25.

Analysis: The Ravens have a tough schedule and would do themselves a big favor by playing better in the AFC North. Last year Baltimore was 3–3 in the division, culminating in a wild-card berth. This season, the Ravens face a loaded AFC North but also draw some favorable matchups with a poor AFC South. Those games will be highlighted by a Week 6 trip to London, where they will square off with the Titans.

In the NFC, Baltimore has marquee matchups against the 49ers, Seahawks and Lions, three teams many believe will make the playoffs. This is also where the easiest game on paper resides, in a date with the Cardinals.

Predicted record: 10–7, third AFC North

Home: vs. 49ers, 1 p.m., Sept. 10; vs. Browns, 7:15 p.m., Sept. 18; vs. Ravens, 1 p.m., Oct. 8; vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; vs. Titans, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 2; vs. Packers, 1 p.m., Nov. 12; vs. Cardinals, 1 p.m., Dec. 3; vs. Patriots, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 7; vs. Bengals, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 23.

Away: at Raiders, 8:20 p.m., Sept. 24; at Texans, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; at Rams, 4:05 p.m., Oct. 22; at Browns, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; at Bengals, 1 p.m., Nov. 26; at Colts, TBD, Dec. 17; at Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., Dec. 31; at Ravens, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: After managing to go 8-8-1 last year with Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett sharing the starting quarterback duties, the Steelers have certainty at the sport’s paramount position. Between that and an improved offensive line behind rookie left tackle Broderick Jones, Pittsburgh could make a push in the competitive AFC North.

The Steelers have a third-place schedule, which means winnable games against the Raiders, Patriots and Packers. Pittsburgh also has a palatable road slate, including nondivisional dates with the Colts, Rams and Texans. It’s reasonable to think the Steelers can win double-digit games and a wild-card spot.

Predicted record: 8–9, fourth AFC North

Home: vs. Bengals, 1 p.m., Sept. 10; vs. Titans, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Ravens, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; vs. Niners, 1 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. Cardinals, 1 p.m., Nov. 5; vs. Steelers, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m., Dec. 10; vs. Bears, TBD, Dec. 17; vs. Jets, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 28.

Away: at Steelers, 8:15 p.m, Sept. 18; at Colts, 1 p.m., Oct. 22; at Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., Oct. 29; at Ravens, 1 p.m., Nov. 12; at Broncos, 4:05 p.m., Nov. 26; at Rams, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 3; at Texans, 1 p.m., Dec. 24; at Bengals, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: After struggling in the first year of the Deshaun Watson era, the Browns enter 2023 with the benefit of a last-place schedule. Cleveland should be favored in most of its games outside the division, but the AFC North matchups are going to be rough. Last year, the Browns went 3–3 in the division and should be improved with Watson fully reinstated.

If Cleveland is going to push for a playoff spot, it’ll need to win some of the softer games on the slate, including home dates with the Cardinals and Bears, and road games against the Texans and Colts.

AFC South

Predicted record: 12–5, first AFC South

Home: vs. Chiefs, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; vs. Texans, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Falcons, 9:30 a.m., Oct. 1 (London); vs. Colts, 1 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. 49ers, 1 p.m., Nov. 12; vs. Titans, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; vs. Bengals, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 4; vs. Ravens, 8:20 p.m., Dec. 17; vs. Bengals, vs. Panthers, 1 p.m., Dec. 31.

Away: at Colts, 1 p.m., Sept. 10; at Bills, 9:30 a.m., Oct. 8; at Saints, 8:15 p.m., Oct. 19; at Steelers, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; at Texans, 1 p.m., Nov. 26; at Browns, 1 p.m., Dec. 10; at Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m., Dec. 24; at Titans, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: While the AFC South plays a very soft schedule compared to the rest of the conference, the Jaguars have some tougher games by way of a first-place docket. Jacksonville will host Kansas City and get a road game with Buffalo, but in London.

The Jaguars are the only team to play two consecutive international games. Come Week 4, Jacksonville will host the Falcons before the aforementioned tilt against Buffalo. All told, this schedule could have the Jaguars fighting for a top seed if things break right.

Predicted record: 5–12, second AFC South

Home: vs. Chargers, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; vs. Bengals, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; vs. Ravens, 9:30 a.m., Oct. 15 (London); vs. Falcons, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; vs. Panthers, 1 p.m., Nov. 26; vs. Colts, 1 p.m., Dec. 3; vs. Texans, 1 p.m., Dec. 17; vs. Seahawks, 1 p.m., Dec. 24; vs. Jaguars, TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Saints, 1 p.m., Sept. 10; at Browns, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; at Colts, 1 p.m., Oct. 8; at Steelers, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 2; at Buccaneers, 1 p.m., Nov. 12; at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; at Dolphins, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 11; at Texans, 1 p.m., Dec. 31.

Analysis: The Titans aren’t expected to do much from a national perspective, but they’ll have chances to surprise while facing one of the league’s easiest slates. Tennessee gets four games against the Texans and Colts, along with four games against the middling NFC South.

For Tennessee, the biggest challenge will be the AFC North, along with second-place games against the Chargers and Dolphins in the AFC. If the Titans can split those six games, they will have a chance to fight their way into playoff contention late in the year. 

Predicted record: 4–13, third AFC South

Home: vs. Colts, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; vs. Steelers, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; vs. Saints, 1 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. Buccaneers, 1 p.m., Nov. 5; vs. Cardinals, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m., Nov. 26; vs. Broncos, 4:05 p.m., Dec. 3; vs. Browns, 1 p.m., Dec. 24; vs. Titans, 1 p.m., Dec. 31.

Away: at Ravens, 1 p.m., Sept. 10; at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; at Falcons, 1 p.m., Oct. 8; at Panthers, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; at Bengals, 1 p.m., Nov. 12; at Jets, 1 p.m., Dec. 10; at Titans, 1 p.m., Dec. 17; at Colts, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: After winning only 11 games over the past three seasons, the Texans are hoping to start their rebuild in earnest under coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud. Houston has a chance to pick up some wins within the AFC South, facing the Colts and Titans.

Houston also draws the weaker NFC South, which some believe could be won by a sub-.500 team. Houston has four home games where it could be favored—Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Arizona.

Predicted record: 3–14, fourth AFC South

Home: vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m., Sept. 10; vs. Rams, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; vs. Titans, 1 p.m., Oct. 8; vs. Browns, 1 p.m., Oct. 22; vs. Saints, 1 p.m., Oct. 29; vs. Buccaneers, 1 p.m., Nov. 26; vs. Steelers, TBD, Dec. 17; vs. Raiders, 1 p.m., Dec. 31; vs. Texans, TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Texans, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; at Ravens, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Oct. 15; at Panthers, 4:05 p.m., Nov. 5; at Patriots, 9:30 a.m., Nov. 12 (Germany); at Titans, 1 p.m., Dec. 3; at Bengals, 1 p.m., Dec. 10; at Falcons, 1 p.m., Dec. 24.

Analysis: It’ll be interesting to see when rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson will make his debut. The Colts will likely be careful about getting him into the lineup, as backup Gardner Minshew is familiar with first-year coach Shane Steichen’s system.

As for the opponents, the Colts have the advantage of playing in the AFC’s weakest division. Houston and Tennessee are in the same talent bracket as Indy, and each is challenged offensively. The Colts also draw the NFC South, providing Steichen with four winnable games. Expecting a playoff berth is aggressive, but Indianapolis should be able to win some games based on a soft schedule.

AFC West

Predicted record: 14–3, first AFC West (No. 1 seed)

Home: vs. Lions, 8:20 p.m., Sept. 7; vs. Bears, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Broncos, 8:15 p.m., Oct. 12; vs. Chargers, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 22; vs. Dolphins, 9:30 a.m., Nov. 5 (Germany); Eagles, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 20; vs. Bills, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 10; vs. Raiders, 1 p.m., Dec. 25; vs. Bengals, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 31.

Away: at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; at Jets, 8:20 p.m., Oct. 1; at Vikings, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 8; at Broncos, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 29; at Raiders, 4:25 p.m., Nov. 26; at Packers, 8:20 p.m., Dec. 3; Patriots, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 18; at Chargers, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: As is often the case with defending Super Bowl champions, the Chiefs have a schedule packed with contenders. Kansas City will host the Eagles, Bengals, Bills and Dolphins (with the latter affair in Germany). They’ll also visit the Jaguars and Jets, giving the Chiefs at least six nondivisional games against legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Inside the division is where Andy Reid’s team has dominated in recent years. Kansas City has won the past seven AFC West titles and in that span has recorded a mark of 37–5 against the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders, including a current 15-game win streak over Denver.

Predicted record: 10–7, second AFC West

Home: vs. Dolphins, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 10; vs. Raiders, 4:05 p.m., Oct. 1; vs. Cowboys, vs. Bears, 8:20 p.m., Oct. 29; vs. Lions, 4:05 p.m., Nov. 12; vs. Ravens, 8:20 p.m., Nov. 26; vs. Broncos, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 10; vs. Bills, 8 p.m., Dec. 23; vs. Chiefs, TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Titans, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; at Vikings, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 22; at Jets, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 6; at Packers, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; at Patriots, 1 p.m., Dec. 3; at Raiders, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 14; at Broncos, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 31.

Analysis: Chargers fans don’t like the reality of their home games sounding like away games, but it’s going to happen a few times this season. Los Angeles is hosting the Chiefs and Raiders as always, but will also see the Cowboys and Bills come to town. Expect it to be loud for the Chargers’ offense on multiple occasions.

Los Angeles’ road slate is palatable, with games against the Patriots, Packers, Vikings and Titans outside the division. There’s a good chance the Chargers will have a winning record away from SoFi Stadium, something that

Predicted record: 7–10, third AFC West

Home: vs. Raiders, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 10; vs. Commanders, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 17; vs. Jets, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 8; vs. Packers, 4:25 p.m., Oct. 22; vs. Chiefs, vs. Vikings, 8:20 p.m., Nov. 19; vs. Browns, 4:05 p.m., Nov. 26; vs. Patriots, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 24; vs. Chargers, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 31.

Away: at Dolphins, 1 p.m., Sept. 24; at Bears, 1 p.m., Oct. 1; at Chiefs, 8:15 p.m., Oct. 12; at Bills, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 13, at Texans, 4:05 p.m., Dec. 3; at Chargers, 4:25 p.m., Dec. 10; at Lions, TBD, Dec. 17; at Raiders, TBD, Jan. 7.

Analysis: After having the most disappointing season in football last year, the Broncos are hoping to rebound under coach Sean Payton. To do so, Denver will have to navigate a division dominated by the Chiefs for the past seven years. The Broncos have been particularly burned by Kansas City, losing 15 straight to the defending champs.

Denver draws a last-place schedule, allowing it to take on the Commanders, Texans and Bears. If the Broncos are going to make a run toward a playoff berth, those games have to result in wins. 

Predicted record: 5–12, fourth AFC West

Home: vs. Steelers, 8:20 p.m., Sept. 24; vs. Packers, 8:15 p.m., Oct. 9; vs. Patriots, 4:05 p.m., Oct. 15; vs. Giants, 4:25 p.m., Nov. 5; vs. Jets, 8:20 p.m., Nov. 12; vs. Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., Nov. 26; vs. Vikings, 4:05 p.m., Dec. 10; vs. Chargers, 8:15 p.m., Dec. 14; vs. Broncos, TBD, Jan. 7.

Away: at Broncos, 4:25 p.m., Sept. 10; at Bills, 1 p.m., Sept. 17; at Chargers, 4:05 p.m., Oct. 1; at Bears, 1 p.m., Oct. 22; at Lions, 8:15 p.m., Oct. 30; at Dolphins, 1 p.m., Nov. 19; at Chiefs, 1 p.m., Dec. 25; at Colts, 1 p.m., Dec. 31.

Analysis: Nothing about this schedule is easy for the Raiders. Las Vegas has the obvious six games in the AFC West, none of which will see the Raiders favored by a big margin, if at all. Then there are four games against the AFC East, including trips to Buffalo and Miami.

If Vegas is going to contend for a playoff spot, taking care of the NFC North is a priority. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo & Co. get the Packers and Vikings at home, while they visit the Bears and resurgent Lions. It’ll be imperative to take three or more of those affairs.