NFC South Title Odds: Saints Are the Favorites in a Weak Division

The NFC South was home to the Super Bowl champion in 2020 and sent two teams to the playoffs. Two years later, no team in the division posted a winning record.

Only one game separated the Buccaneers, Saints, Falcons and Panthers in the standings last season, and Tampa Bay finished first. Now, New Orleans is the betting favorite to win the NFC South title, followed by the Falcons and then the Panthers. The Buccaneers, who won it the last two years, have the longest odds following Tom Brady’s retirement.

A case can be made for all four teams to have a shot at the division crown in 2023 and their odds are all relatively bunched up.

Bet on the NFC South Champion on SI Sportsbook

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New Orleans Saints Odds to Win NFC South: +125

The Saints finished with their worst record since 2016 in coach Dennis Allen’s first season in charge. The biggest offseason change was at quarterback as Derek Carr is set to take over for Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston remains on the roster as the backup. New Orleans added running back Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season, to the backfield with Alvin Kamara but didn’t do much at wide receiver. In the draft, the front office focused on defense following the departure of linebackers Marcus Davenport and Kaden Ellis. The Saints added defensive tackle Bryan Breese and defensive end Isaiah Foskey to the front seven in the first two rounds. New Orleans still has a sound defense in place and figures to get better quarterback play out of Carr than any of its division opponents, which explains its status as the clear favorite.

Saints 2022 Record: 7–10

Saints 2023 Projected Win Total: 9.5

Saints Home Opponents: Falcons, Panthers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars, Giants, Buccaneers, Titans

Saints Away Opponents: Falcons, Panthers, Packers, Texans, Colts, Rams, Vikings, Patriots, Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons Odds to Win NFC South: +260

The Falcons went 7–10 for the second season in a row and then spent a top-10 pick on a skill position player for the third straight year. Defense was Atlanta’s downfall, not offense, though generational running back prospect Bijan Robinson could take coach Arthur Smith’s run-first scheme to the next level. Along with tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Drake London, he’s another high-draft capital target for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke was also signed as a depth piece behind Ridder after Marcus Mariota’s departure. The front office addressed its defensive concerns, too, with the addition of Kaden Elliss, linebacker Bud Dupree, defensive end Calais Campbell, defensive tackle David Onyemata, cornerback Jeff Okudah and safety Jessie Bates III. The Falcons were competitive for most of last season — it wouldn’t take a massive leap for them to post their first winning season since 2017 given their offseason upgrades.

Falcons 2022 Record: 7–10

Falcons 2023 Projected Win Total: 8.5

Falcons Home Opponents: Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, Vikings, Packers, Texans, Colts, Commanders

Falcons Away Opponents: Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars, Titans, Cardinals, Jets

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Carolina Panthers Odds to Win NFC South: +350

The Panthers will have an almost entirely new operation in 2023. Coach Frank Reich took the top job in the offseason and the team made a splash by trading up for the No. 1 pick, which it used to select quarterback Bryce Young. He’ll be joining an offense flush with new faces: Running back Miles Sanders, receivers, Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark and tight end Hayden Hurst were all free agent pickups. Safety Vonn Bell was Carolina’s marquee signing on defense. The only other No. 1 pick in franchise history was Cam Newton, who went on to win Rookie of the Year, but it would take a few seasons before he led his team to a postseason appearance. Given the state of the division, Young has the potential to do so in Year 1 if he catches on quickly.

Panthers 2022 Record: 7–10

Panthers 2023 Projected Win Total: 7.5

Panthers Home Opponents: Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, Packers, Vikings, Texans, Colts, Cowboys

Panthers Away Opponents: Falcons, Bears, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Buccaneers, Titans, Seahawks, Dolphins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds to Win NFC South: +550

Tom Brady’s retirement seems to be final this time around, which means Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask will be taking over at quarterback for Tampa Bay. Mayfield was a free agent addition and Trask was the team’s 2021 second-round pick who’s hardly played across two NFL seasons. Whoever it is will be playing under new offensive coordinator Dan Canales, who’s replacing Byron Leftwich. The backbone of the Super Bowl team is still there, though the notable offseason departures include guard Shaq Mason, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and running back Leonard Fournette. The Buccaneers have made the playoffs each of the last three seasons after a 12-year drought. They’ll be hard-pressed to make it four years in a row unless there’s improvement on offense.

Buccaneers 2022 Record: 8–9

Buccaneers 2023 Projected Win Total: 6.5

Buccaneers Home Opponents: Falcons, Panthers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Eagles, Titans

Buccaneers Away Opponents: Falcons, Bills, Panthers, Packers, Texans, Colts, Vikings, Saints, 49ers

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